Toastie Still Likes Politics For Some Reason

Do I LIKE politics? I don’t know. I can’t seem to stop following politics, though.

I was staring at electoral-projection-guru Nate Silver’s Senate projections and hoping there was a chance he was just wrong. And then I looked at his 538.com posts from 2008. Five weeks out, his projections for the Senate were pretty much dead-on. Virtually nothing changed between early October and Election Day.

I went through the 2010 Senate races and gave the Democrats the benefit-of-the-doubt that they can win Nevada and Illinois, and then the Dems control the Senate 53-47. This is pretty pathetic considering where they are now and where they could be.

I went through the races and gave them the seats that I think they SHOULD BE winning in a world where Democrats have some spine, where the Democrat is within 10 points or less and either the Dems have a strong candidate or the GOP has an inferior candidate. In this scenario, they control the Senate 62-38. They actually GAIN seats. I don’t blame the economy or the Tea Party or the uninformed electorate for the ass-kicking the Democrats are going to get in November. I blame Obama and his team and the leadership of the Democratic Party.

In ’08, only Al Franken came from behind in the final few weeks, and he only won by 0.01%. Whille 5-6 point leads seem surmountable, it is unlikely that the likes of Russ Feingold (WI) and Joe Sestak (PA) will prevail. Obama and the Democratic Party leadership would need a historic midterm election GOTV effort, led by their mostly-progressive-leaning base. But they’re acting like they just don’t give a damn. Obama really seems to relish the idea of having more evenly-split houses of Congress, like he wants to give bipartisanship another round.

If Obama cares so much about being a bipartisan leader, maybe he should consider running as an independent in 2012.

Yeah, I know that’s not gonna happen.

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